Anti Union Tories

[Adeste Fideles]

Scotsgait: Scotland result was the same as the rest of the UK - the Liberal vote collapsed, Tory vote fell a smaller amount, and Labour recovered somewhat. the "BIG" news from Scotland was the fall of the SNP from 2011 - to now 2012. It appears that the TRAM problems in Edinburgh were against Salmond, the link with Fred The Shred, being Anti-Trident, buddies with Rupert Murdoch and others like him all took its toll on the SNP.....Plus the scandals around one or two of the SNP candidates.

Originally Posted by Adeste Fideles

Scotsgait: Scotland result was the same as the rest of the UK - the Liberal vote collapsed, Tory vote fell a smaller amount, and Labour recovered somewhat. the "BIG" news from Scotland was the fall of the SNP from 2011 - to now 2012. It appears that the TRAM problems in Edinburgh were against Salmond, the link with Fred The Shred, being Anti-Trident, buddies with Rupert Murdoch and others like him all took its toll on the SNP.....Plus the scandals around one or two of the SNP candidates.

What happened in 2011 is not relevant for the reason I have already stated - the Scottish electorate vote according to the level of govt in question and the issues associated with it. For example, independence was not an issue at the recent poll but the trams certainly were.

The appropriate comparator is the 2007 local authority election and, in relation to that, the SNP overtook Labour in gains and number of councillors whilst increasing its vote share to 32.32%, with Labour behind on 31.39%. This was a 4.46% increase on its 2007 performance and 1.22 percentage points higher than the Labour rise of 3.24% - resulting in the SNP making 62 gains compared with Labour which gained only 46.

[Adeste Fideles]

Scotsgait, that is totally untrue - The Liberal vote collapsed due to NATIONAL politics - you know this to be true. Thus, logically we can tell that NATIONAL politics was important. Thus we know that the SNP are in ball park of 32%. The referendum is toast.

[morayloon]

Originally Posted by Adeste Fideles

It appears that the TRAM problems in Edinburgh were against Salmond

As you have pointed out the Liberal vote collapsed and I am certain that their involvement with the trams was a major cause of this. How do you make out that the SNP was hit in Edinburgh - it achieved an increase of 5 councillors, hardly a sign of failure.

Originally Posted by Adeste Fideles

Scotsgait, that is totally untrue - The Liberal vote collapsed due to NATIONAL politics - you know this to be true. Thus, logically we can tell that NATIONAL politics was important. Thus we know that the SNP are in ball park of 32%. The referendum is toast.

What wasn't true ? That voters take different approaches to elections for each level of govt ? That independence wasn't an issue in the local govt elections ? Or - and what will be the most galling to you, I suspect, - that the SNP overtook Labour in gains and number of councillors whilst increasing its vote share from the true comparator of the 2007 local authority elections ?

[Adeste Fideles]

Its your call. You can compare with 2007 (last local election) as you are doing or you can compare with 2011 (last assembly election) as I am doing. It depends if you are looking at this as popularity for a "yes" vote or popularity of councilors. As a voter for over 35 years I can tell you that I, like most people, generally vote either for the party I vote nationally or I protest vote in some way or I vote for an independent popular local candidate. From this poll, using my methodology, the SNP popularity has collapsed from winning over 50% of assembly seats in 2011 to just 32% of vote now. For them to win over 50% of a referendum in 2014 is going to take some amazing 24 months of electioneering without any skeletons in the cupboard coming out. Unless Cameron goes doladie I'm pretty sure the union is safe.

Originally Posted by Adeste Fideles

Its your call. You can compare with 2007 (last local election) as you are doing or you can compare with 2011 (last assembly election) as I am doing. It depends if you are looking at this as popularity for a "yes" vote or popularity of councilors. As a voter for over 35 years I can tell you that I, like most people, generally vote either for the party I vote nationally or I protest vote in some way or I vote for an independent popular local candidate. From this poll, using my methodology, the SNP popularity has collapsed from winning over 50% of assembly seats in 2011 to just 32% of vote now. For them to win over 50% of a referendum in 2014 is going to take some amazing 24 months of electioneering without any skeletons in the cupboard coming out. Unless Cameron goes doladie I'm pretty sure the union is safe.

I don't know what this "assembly" you keep referring to is but any scientific analysis requires comparison of like with like - in this case, local govt elections in STV in 2007 v local govt elections by STV in 2012. Also, despite your behaviour of 35 years as a voter (pretty much the same length of time I have been voting - my first was cast in the '75 referendum), it, by itself, is not representative of anything but you.