Why is meteorology considered a science?

[Barbaradavid]

Hello everyone,

Well in sciences you must be able to comeback test results. Yet meteorologists are routinely wrong in their predictions and are completely unstable in any forecast over three days.

I could post empirical evidence, but the reason for this topic was that last night at 10pm our local weatherman predicted 90 degrees and partly cloudy. Today it is mostly cloudy and raining. How could he have been so far off, given the forecast was only 12 hours away?

[Lianachan]

Originally Posted by Barbaradavid

Hello everyone,

Well in sciences you must be able to comeback test results. Yet meteorologists are routinely wrong in their predictions and are completely unstable in any forecast over three days.

I could post empirical evidence, but the reason for this topic was that last night at 10pm our local weatherman predicted 90 degrees and partly cloudy. Today it is mostly cloudy and raining. How could he have been so far off, given the forecast was only 12 hours away?

Meteorology isn't about predicting the weather, it is the scientific study of the atmosphere. Weather predicting is a by-product, not the main thrust of the entire discipline.

[wullie m]

Barbara, what you need is Sean Batty, he never knowingly gave a duff forecast! wullie m

[kathyv]

You can't run a test to prove things in Meteorology, there are too many variables that can not be eliminated within any test. There is no way to be specific enough in data gathering. All you can do is your best educated guess, bearing the variables in mind.

The kind of scientific procedure you are citing is only good in a controlled test, the weather can not be controlled.

Why are you so bothered?

[Lianachan]

Originally Posted by kathyv

You can't run a test to prove things in Meteorology, there are too many variables that can not be eliminated within any test.

Yes you can.

[Saorsa1]

Speaking as a scientist.

If you can identify the variables, then you can include them in the computation and the result should be theoretically predictable.

With today's computers and weather monitoring systems and satellite monitoring equipment, then predicting the weather generally over a specific landmass over a 72hour period seems quite doable;

The weather men/women seem to get it right most of the time.

But it's only science, not magic, and thus isn't perfect.

Not yet anyway.

[Lachlan09]

"Modern weather prediction is an exacting science in which unexpected variables are reduced to a minimum" Michael Fish